Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +13 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -6.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -6.2 (+6.8) | 154.2 (+8.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -6.0 (+7.0) | 151.6 (+11.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -5.6 (+7.4) | 153.5 (+9.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -5.6 (+7.4) | 154.4 (+8.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 4-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#241) | -8.4 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#231) | -1.78 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#226) | -2.06 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#225) | 0.451 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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