Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -5.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.8 (+2.8) | 141.7 (-16.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.5 (+4.5) | 142.9 (-17.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -2.9 (+3.9) | 144.7 (-19.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.7 (+3.7) | 144.3 (-19.3) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AUB 76 – 67 FLA |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FLA 79 – 73 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 81 AUB |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AUB 86 – 67 FLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FLA 81 – 65 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#45) | 18.6 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#66) | 3.87 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#64) | 4.68 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#79) | 0.666 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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