Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MSU +120 ILL -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -0.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.2 (-6.2) | 138.6 (+14.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.6 (-7.6) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.1 (-7.1) | 140.1 (+12.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.5 (-7.5) | 138.2 (+14.8) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#22) | 15.6 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#24) | 2.60 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#20) | 3.09 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#23) | 0.606 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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