Betting Lines
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | CIT +105 ETSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -0.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -1.1 (-8.9) | 152.6 (-8.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -0.2 (-10.2) | 153.5 (-9.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -0.4 (-10.4) | 155.6 (-11.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -0.3 (-9.7) | 153.7 (-9.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#247) | -1.1 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#226) | 0.03 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#231) | -0.02 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#218) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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