Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +12 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -5.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -6.1 (-5.9) | 134.1 (+1.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.5 (-6.5) | 135.7 (+0.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.7 (-6.3) | 136.3 (-0.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.5 (-6.5) | 132.6 (+3.4) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JOES 81 – 74 DAY |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JOES 73 – 68 DAY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DAY 77 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | DAY 94 – 79 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DAY 60 – 54 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 61.2 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | 9.6 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#193) | 1.39 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#179) | 1.81 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#205) | 0.563 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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