Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -4500 STMN +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +19 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -19.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -16.2 (+2.8) | 147.5 (-8.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -16.9 (+2.1) | 154.4 (-15.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -18.6 (+0.4) | 155.4 (-16.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -18.3 (+0.7) | 154.7 (-15.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-0 | 5-8 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#66) | -8.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#53) | -1.96 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#61) | -2.06 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#32) | 0.414 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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