Betting Lines
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | APSU +100 TNTC -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -0.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -1.6 (-5.6) | 137.4 (+4.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -0.8 (-4.8) | 141.3 (+0.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.7 (-4.7) | 141.4 (+0.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -0.4 (-4.4) | 139.8 (+2.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2022 | TNTC 78 – 51 APSU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | APSU 58 – 55 TNTC |
| Feb 26, 2021 | TNTC 81 – 76 APSU |
| Jan 22, 2021 | APSU 72 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-10 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#276) | -4.4 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#276) | -1.88 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#279) | -2.05 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#255) | 0.424 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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