Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +27 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -0.8 (-26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.5 (-27.5) | 136.9 (-7.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -0.1 (-27.1) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.0 (-27.0) | 140.9 (-11.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -0.1 (-26.9) | 140.2 (-11.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2022 | TNTC 73 – 69 APSU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | APSU 58 – 55 TNTC |
| Feb 26, 2021 | TNTC 81 – 76 APSU |
| Jan 22, 2021 | APSU 72 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-10 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#274) | -5.7 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#268) | -1.74 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#273) | -2.00 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#236) | 0.436 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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