Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +350 APSU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -6.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -5.9 (+10.9) | 141.4 (+15.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -6.5 (+11.5) | 146.6 (+10.4) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -5.8 (+10.8) | 148.8 (+8.2) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -5.8 (+10.8) | 145.5 (+11.5) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2022 | TNTC 78 – 51 APSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | TNTC 73 – 69 APSU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | APSU 58 – 55 TNTC |
| Jan 22, 2021 | APSU 72 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-22 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-16 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#326) | -2.9 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.79 (#337) | -0.90 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.29 (#329) | -1.31 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#318) | 0.480 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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