Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -800 TNTC +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -9.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -7.5 (-4.5) | 143.9 (-2.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -7.5 (-4.5) | 146.5 (-5.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -7.0 (-4.0) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -6.8 (-3.8) | 146.6 (-5.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2022 | TNTC 78 – 51 APSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | TNTC 73 – 69 APSU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | APSU 58 – 55 TNTC |
| Feb 26, 2021 | TNTC 81 – 76 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 5-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#251) | -11.4 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#205) | -2.24 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#250) | -2.67 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#236) | 0.421 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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