Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -20.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -17.2 (-3.2) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -16.2 (-2.2) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -17.5 (-3.5) | 148.9 (+11.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -15.9 (-1.9) | 148.2 (+11.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#105) | -12.2 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#128) | -1.98 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#120) | -2.46 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#98) | 0.420 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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