Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +6 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.1 (+5.9) | 135.5 (-31.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.2 (+4.8) | 138.8 (-34.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.6 (+5.4) | 140.1 (-36.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.1 (+6.1) | 136.4 (-32.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#211) | -0.2 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#129) | 0.49 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#153) | 0.35 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#131) | 0.520 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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