Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -5.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -6.7 (+4.3) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.5 (+5.5) | 143.9 (-10.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.9 (+5.1) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -5.6 (+5.4) | 144.3 (-11.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 8-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#17) | 12.5 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#18) | 2.41 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#18) | 2.92 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#35) | 0.598 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.