Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +14 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -12.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -9.2 (+4.8) | 128.5 (-16.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -10.1 (+3.9) | 131.4 (-19.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -9.8 (+4.2) | 132.0 (-20.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -10.2 (+3.8) | 130.9 (-18.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | TNST 77 – 68 EIU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EIU 74 – 70 TNST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TNST 66 – 49 EIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TNST 84 – 65 EIU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TNST 78 – 73 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Away | 5-10 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 54.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#294) | -17.2 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#310) | -3.07 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#315) | -3.62 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#335) | 0.358 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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