Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -9.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -9.3 (-14.3) | 145.5 (+9.5) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -10.3 (-15.3) | 147.6 (+7.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -10.2 (-15.2) | 147.7 (+7.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -10.4 (-15.4) | 146.0 (+9.0) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VMI 79 – 71 UTC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTC 91 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UTC 88 – 84 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 12-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#77) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#60) | 0.17 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#69) | 0.40 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#26) | 0.517 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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