Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +16 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -4.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -3.1 (-12.9) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -3.0 (-13.0) | 133.8 (-5.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.7 (-13.3) | 133.5 (-5.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -2.4 (-13.6) | 133.5 (-5.5) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#309) | -1.7 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#316) | -0.70 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#295) | -0.72 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#313) | 0.457 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 15.6% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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