Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MER -3.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -3.8 (+7.8) | 145.4 (-11.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.9 (+6.9) | 144.5 (-10.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.8 (+6.8) | 145.6 (-11.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.9 (+6.9) | 146.2 (-12.2) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#302) | -1.7 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#248) | 0.35 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#252) | 0.25 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#277) | 0.521 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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