Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UK -9.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -8.2 (+0.8) | 163.7 (+7.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -9.6 (-0.6) | 161.5 (+9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -9.5 (-0.5) | 159.7 (+11.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -10.7 (-1.7) | 158.4 (+12.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALA 89 – 74 UK |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ALA 99 – 70 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALA 102 – 97 UK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UK 117 – 95 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#3) | 13.9 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#10) | 2.41 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#7) | 3.07 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#8) | 0.647 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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