Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -3.4 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -3.7 (+19.7) | 135.7 (+14.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -2.4 (+18.4) | 136.3 (+13.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -2.5 (+18.5) | 137.0 (+13.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -2.6 (+18.6) | 136.3 (+13.7) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AMER 75 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 18, 2026 | AMER 78 – 67 ARMY |
| Feb 19, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 69 AMER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AMER 71 – 68 ARMY |
| Feb 28, 2024 | AMER 73 – 51 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-16 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#343) | -6.8 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#325) | -1.15 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#323) | -1.57 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#343) | 0.452 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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