Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -13.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -11.9 (-1.9) | 134.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -10.5 (-0.5) | 140.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -11.7 (-1.7) | 140.7 (-6.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -11.5 (-1.5) | 136.9 (-2.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#5) | 9.1 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#6) | 2.06 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.15 (#6) | 2.55 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#16) | 0.554 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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