Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +9 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -1.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -1.2 (-10.2) | 136.3 (-29.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.3 (-10.3) | 139.5 (-32.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -0.7 (-9.7) | 138.8 (-31.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -0.4 (-9.4) | 138.2 (-31.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UTA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ARST 83 – 79 UTA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | ARST 75 – 70 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 64 – 56 ARST |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 73 – 71 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 8-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#229) | -1.9 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#196) | 0.31 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#193) | 0.46 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#197) | 0.516 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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