Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -400 UTA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -9.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.4 (-4.4) | 152.9 (+9.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -8.5 (-4.5) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.8 (-4.8) | 149.4 (+12.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -8.8 (-4.8) | 151.5 (+10.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARST 58 – 49 UTA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | ARST 75 – 70 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 64 – 56 ARST |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 73 – 71 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#110) | -1.4 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#65) | -0.65 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#61) | -0.59 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#52) | 0.483 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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