Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -258 UTA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -1.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.4 (+15.6) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.9 (+17.1) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.9 (+17.1) | 142.5 (+3.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.6 (+18.4) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2024 | ARST 83 – 79 UTA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARST 58 – 49 UTA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | ARST 75 – 70 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 64 – 56 ARST |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 73 – 71 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#231) | -0.1 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#99) | 0.76 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#127) | 0.76 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#70) | 0.530 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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