Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -188 ARST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -3.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -2.0 (-0.0) | 138.6 (+5.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.5 (-0.5) | 140.8 (+3.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -2.4 (-0.4) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -2.2 (-0.2) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UTA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ARST 83 – 79 UTA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARST 58 – 49 UTA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | ARST 75 – 70 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 64 – 56 ARST |
Game Analysis
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