Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -175 ARST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -3.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -2.0 (+6.0) | 138.2 (-18.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.5 (+5.5) | 139.8 (-19.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -2.6 (+5.4) | 140.2 (-20.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -2.4 (+5.6) | 141.0 (-21.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UTA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ARST 83 – 79 UTA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARST 58 – 49 UTA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | ARST 75 – 70 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 73 – 71 ARST |
Game Analysis
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