Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -5.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.4 (+0.6) | 138.1 (+6.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -4.3 (+0.7) | 138.3 (+6.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -4.0 (+1.0) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -4.1 (+0.9) | 139.1 (+5.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UTA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ARST 83 – 79 UTA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARST 58 – 49 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 64 – 56 ARST |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 73 – 71 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 7-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | -3.7 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#113) | -0.08 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#130) | 0.01 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#136) | 0.490 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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