Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +27 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -13.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -13.0 (+14.0) | 144.5 (+0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -13.9 (+13.1) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -13.3 (+13.7) | 145.8 (-0.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -14.4 (+12.6) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#74) | -3.4 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#87) | -0.70 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#77) | -0.99 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#53) | 0.470 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 13.1% |
Game Analysis
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