Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +9 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -0.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.8 (-7.2) | 132.8 (-25.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.4 (-8.6) | 133.6 (-26.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.4 (-8.6) | 133.1 (-26.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.0 (-8.0) | 133.9 (-26.9) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-5 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#246) | -1.1 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#212) | -0.06 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#232) | 0.13 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#237) | 0.481 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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