We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–37 on winners spread MAE 8.4 127 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb -10.6 145.3 15% 65–67 ✗
High Point @ Radford -11.2 161.0 17% 93–83 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Longwood -0.9 149.6 49% 79–81 ✗
Massachusetts @ Buffalo +2.5 151.2 65% 68–67 ✗
Chicago State @ Saint Francis +0.9 138.9 52% 60–81 ✓
Long Island University @ Stonehill -6.2 132.7 25% 66–63 ✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne +5.8 141.5 73% 67–69 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +8.5 138.9 82% 76–66 ✗
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +14.1 141.3 89% 55–84 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State -3.5 134.1 33% 58–75 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +4.0 140.9 67% 70–73 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +15.0 159.0 89% 62–74 ✓
Marquette @ Butler +11.4 154.1 87% 76–87 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -9.3 163.9 19% 86–65 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southern Indiana +4.2 130.6 66% 64–96 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State -3.4 145.1 37% 65–61 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford -2.0 156.0 43% 77–80 ✗
Ole Miss @ Kentucky +11.7 142.7 87% 63–72 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida -2.2 157.8 38% 114–117 ✗
Wake Forest @ Duke +17.0 146.6 90% 69–90 ✓
Nebraska @ Minnesota -7.4 133.9 23% 76–57 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +17.6 134.5 91% 48–91 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia +8.0 146.7 77% 85–80 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State -7.6 156.3 22% 88–56 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -7.9 139.3 20% 77–63 ✓
American University @ Holy Cross -3.0 133.7 37% 76–67 ✓
NC State @ Pittsburgh -7.1 145.5 27% 81–72 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +3.7 135.0 66% 53–63 ✓
Niagara @ Sacred Heart +8.4 136.0 81% 70–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -4.1 132.6 31% 75–67 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +2.6 153.0 65% 70–80 ✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T -3.6 133.2 35% 73–80 ✗
Monmouth @ Campbell +2.8 142.4 66% 88–73 ✗
Hofstra @ William & Mary +2.4 148.2 64% 82–89 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +10.4 135.7 82% 67–75 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +5.5 157.0 72% 81–78 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +1.8 131.5 60% 68–73 ✓
Georgia @ Texas -0.9 165.2 47% 67–87 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State +1.2 148.4 56% 76–62 ✗
Illinois State @ Belmont +4.4 142.8 71% 69–80 ✓
Temple @ UTSA -12.1 138.3 14% 70–64 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +4.2 148.2 69% 80–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +4.1 146.2 69% 65–64 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +4.0 144.8 69% 71–67 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Marist +3.0 133.0 65% 64–71 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant -6.1 130.9 25% 62–52 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +4.7 143.2 71% 56–79 ✓
Texas State @ James Madison +3.9 139.0 66% 57–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ Coastal Carolina +2.0 139.6 63% 67–85 ✓
South Carolina @ Texas A&M +9.1 153.5 83% 69–92 ✓
Delaware @ Liberty +14.4 135.6 88% 51–67 ✓
St. John's @ Xavier -5.0 150.4 29% 88–83 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +14.5 139.2 88% 76–103 ✓
Army @ Navy +11.1 142.8 87% 56–84 ✓
VMI @ Western Carolina +8.4 146.0 81% 58–88 ✓
West Virginia @ Arizona +15.4 139.8 88% 53–88 ✓
Houston @ Texas Tech +2.5 136.7 55% 86–90 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +12.2 140.1 88% 78–77 ✗
George Mason @ Rhode Island -1.9 132.0 41% 65–74 ✗
Duquesne @ Loyola Chicago -7.3 150.5 24% 71–59 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's -4.8 137.2 31% 74–81 ✗
Boston University @ Colgate +7.7 147.7 79% 79–80 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -5.0 141.4 32% 82–72 ✓
Miami @ Syracuse -1.3 145.3 47% 85–76 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland +1.5 141.2 57% 62–67 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth -0.7 151.2 51% 79–69 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota -5.9 155.6 27% 90–78 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +1.7 133.7 59% 53–58 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard +4.0 157.3 69% 86–79 ✗
Yale @ Pennsylvania -4.7 149.2 31% 77–60 ✓
Binghamton @ Maine +5.8 128.1 72% 63–79 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +0.6 132.6 53% 72–80 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +4.7 137.1 72% 78–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford +2.5 144.6 63% 64–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State -3.4 144.3 33% 81–82 ✗
Oklahoma @ Missouri +4.4 146.1 70% 87–88 ✓
Florida International @ New Mexico State +7.2 146.8 79% 81–78 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +6.1 149.3 76% 58–73 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Louisville +11.7 154.9 86% 71–85 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana -0.1 136.8 50% 61–67 ✗
Queens University @ West Georgia -6.5 158.1 26% 66–74 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +7.5 129.8 77% 58–62 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +4.0 145.1 66% 88–82 ✗
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -8.1 154.6 21% 84–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington +8.3 151.3 79% 69–85 ✓
UCF @ Colorado +0.3 151.4 50% 95–86 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Merrimack +1.2 129.9 56% 59–67 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -8.2 142.8 22% 86–58 ✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy -5.7 161.6 28% 95–87 ✓
Troy @ Georgia Southern -5.5 161.2 29% 83–78 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +0.7 138.2 53% 76–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern -2.7 141.2 34% 74–89 ✗
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan +1.1 148.7 55% 76–75 ✗
New Orleans @ McNeese +12.8 150.4 88% 63–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood +2.5 148.8 65% 96–86 ✗
Auburn @ Florida +9.7 159.0 82% 76–67 ✗
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +0.6 136.1 51% 76–81 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +11.8 139.0 87% 62–66 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State +4.1 141.5 67% 59–74 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman +9.4 151.0 83% 48–85 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -4.2 148.9 31% 82–71 ✓
Florida State @ SMU +13.0 158.9 88% 80–83 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +19.4 136.2 90% 54–96 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +4.2 154.0 68% 93–86 ✗
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +7.4 132.9 78% 61–71 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar -6.5 132.0 24% 88–81 ✓
Missouri State @ UTEP -0.3 135.7 48% 62–57 ✓
Tulsa @ Rice -12.6 148.4 15% 87–81 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word +0.0 129.3 47% 79–71 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Houston Christian -2.5 138.4 40% 68–51 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +9.2 158.6 82% 81–85 ✓
VCU @ Davidson -4.3 143.1 37% 75–69 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -2.2 130.4 39% 60–67 ✗
Bowling Green @ Toledo -0.8 148.5 47% 72–73 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +9.0 146.8 82% 66–74 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho +0.6 141.7 53% 69–66 ✗
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +4.8 157.2 69% 67–75 ✓
Utah @ BYU +16.4 160.1 90% 78–91 ✓
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +2.0 151.0 62% 95–80 ✗
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M +7.9 141.2 78% 58–66 ✓
Pepperdine @ Washington State +8.5 140.6 82% 79–95 ✓
TCU @ Baylor +3.7 147.1 67% 97–90 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +5.0 151.1 71% 75–74 ✗
Northwestern @ UCLA +6.0 139.2 75% 64–71 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame +8.7 135.0 80% 64–68 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +7.7 145.9 80% 65–77 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +5.1 145.2 74% 60–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.