Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -1350 VT +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -14.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -13.7 (+0.3) | 155.4 (+0.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -14.2 (-0.2) | 159.2 (-3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -11.7 (+2.3) | 154.9 (+1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -12.4 (+1.6) | 155.1 (+0.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | LOU 71 – 66 VT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | VT 80 – 64 LOU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | VT 75 – 68 LOU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | VT 71 – 54 LOU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | VT 75 – 43 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#8) | 11.0 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#33) | 2.32 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#33) | 3.13 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#36) | 0.619 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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