Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +400 VT -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +17 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -10.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -11.0 (-6.0) | 146.4 (-21.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -11.2 (-5.8) | 144.0 (-19.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -9.5 (-7.5) | 146.7 (-21.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -10.3 (-6.7) | 148.5 (-23.5) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | LOU 85 – 71 VT |
| Feb 26, 2025 | LOU 71 – 66 VT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | VT 80 – 64 LOU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | VT 75 – 68 LOU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | VT 75 – 43 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 8-12 |
| Home | 4-13 | 13-4 |
| Away | 0-11 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#292) | 7.5 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#317) | 1.22 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#264) | 1.64 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#314) | 0.545 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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