Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | VT -1600 LOU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | VT -18.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -13.8 (-6.8) | 147.5 (-4.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -15.5 (-8.5) | 147.6 (-4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -12.0 (-5.0) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -13.1 (-6.1) | 146.4 (-3.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | LOU 85 – 71 VT |
| Feb 26, 2025 | LOU 71 – 66 VT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | VT 80 – 64 LOU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | VT 71 – 54 LOU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | VT 75 – 43 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-11 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#65) | -5.9 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#67) | -1.01 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#63) | -1.72 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#82) | 0.447 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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