Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +32 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | VT -11.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -10.4 (+21.6) | 130.7 (-12.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -10.6 (+21.4) | 134.7 (-16.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -10.6 (+21.4) | 134.6 (-16.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -11.0 (+21.0) | 133.8 (-15.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | LOU 85 – 71 VT |
| Feb 26, 2025 | LOU 71 – 66 VT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | VT 80 – 64 LOU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | VT 75 – 68 LOU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | VT 71 – 54 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#36) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#72) | 0.48 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#70) | 0.61 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#70) | 0.509 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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