Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | VT +450 LOU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -11.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -10.7 (+5.7) | 141.8 (-4.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -9.1 (+4.1) | 144.0 (-7.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -10.7 (+5.7) | 142.2 (-5.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -10.3 (+5.3) | 143.5 (-6.5) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | LOU 85 – 71 VT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | VT 80 – 64 LOU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | VT 75 – 68 LOU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | VT 71 – 54 LOU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | VT 75 – 43 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 8-9 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#138) | 16.4 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#154) | 2.81 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#158) | 3.48 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#183) | 0.615 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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