Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +250 VT -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +16 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -8.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -8.6 (-7.4) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -9.3 (-6.7) | 149.0 (-5.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -8.5 (-7.5) | 149.4 (-5.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -8.1 (-7.9) | 149.4 (-5.4) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | LOU 85 – 71 VT |
| Feb 26, 2025 | LOU 71 – 66 VT |
| Dec 3, 2023 | VT 75 – 68 LOU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | VT 71 – 54 LOU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | VT 75 – 43 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-11 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#192) | 9.8 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#232) | 1.50 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#217) | 1.95 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#297) | 0.556 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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