Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +230 NCSU -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +9 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -8.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -7.1 (-1.9) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -5.3 (-3.7) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -8.1 (-0.9) | 147.1 (+5.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -7.5 (-1.5) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NCSU 98 – 88 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | NCSU 71 – 63 PITT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PITT 81 – 73 NCSU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PITT 67 – 64 NCSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PITT 68 – 60 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#100) | 17.1 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#161) | 1.90 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#144) | 2.72 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#167) | 0.581 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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