Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -410 PITT +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +10 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -8.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -7.9 (+2.1) | 141.7 (+44.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -5.6 (+4.4) | 140.1 (+45.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -8.1 (+1.9) | 143.3 (+42.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -7.1 (+2.9) | 142.1 (+43.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCSU 81 – 72 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | NCSU 71 – 63 PITT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PITT 81 – 73 NCSU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PITT 67 – 64 NCSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PITT 68 – 60 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-10 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#32) | 6.2 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#42) | 0.74 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#40) | 0.91 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#46) | 0.510 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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