Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU +130 PITT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -4.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -2.6 (+10.6) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -3.0 (+11.0) | 140.9 (-6.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -2.7 (+10.7) | 144.3 (-10.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -2.9 (+10.9) | 144.1 (-10.1) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NCSU 98 – 88 PITT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCSU 81 – 72 PITT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PITT 81 – 73 NCSU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PITT 67 – 64 NCSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PITT 68 – 60 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#114) | 11.2 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#164) | 1.38 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#149) | 1.74 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#249) | 0.543 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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