Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | NCSU -550 PITT +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -15.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -9.5 (-17.5) | 147.0 (-19.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -10.5 (-18.5) | 147.9 (-19.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -9.7 (-17.7) | 146.0 (-18.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -11.3 (-19.3) | 145.7 (-17.7) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NCSU 98 – 88 PITT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCSU 81 – 72 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | NCSU 71 – 63 PITT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PITT 81 – 73 NCSU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PITT 67 – 64 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#28) | 2.3 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#47) | 0.58 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#49) | 1.81 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#61) | 0.523 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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