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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–14 on winners spread MAE 9.4 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Florida @ UAB	-1.0	162.0	46%	82–69	✓
Wisconsin @ Penn State	-4.8	152.4	29%	98–71	✓
Merrimack @ Iona	+1.6	135.4	59%	60–61	✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris	+4.7	149.1	71%	76–88	✓
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's	-3.7	142.0	37%	77–62	✓
Niagara @ Fairfield	+10.7	138.0	87%	61–62	✓
Canisius @ Sacred Heart	+7.4	136.8	80%	66–69	✓
Marist @ Siena	-1.0	125.4	45%	50–69	✗
UNC Wilmington @ William & Mary	+1.5	142.9	59%	70–77	✓
Campbell @ Charleston	+3.0	149.3	67%	83–87	✓
Towson @ Elon	+2.9	137.4	66%	72–59	✗
Monmouth @ Hampton	+0.1	132.2	51%	63–65	✓
Hofstra @ North Carolina A&T	-7.6	143.6	22%	78–79	✗
Stony Brook @ Northeastern	+3.6	145.3	65%	95–80	✗
South Alabama @ James Madison	+0.8	137.2	55%	90–83	✗
Southern Miss @ Georgia State	+0.0	138.5	52%	62–69	✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern	-1.3	162.0	43%	85–68	✓
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina	+3.7	139.3	65%	70–72	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Florida	-4.8	157.4	26%	85–87	✗
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville	+2.5	138.1	64%	77–70	✗
Western Illinois @ Morehead State	+8.7	138.4	82%	66–71	✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts	+1.6	146.2	60%	79–62	✗
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State	+6.0	142.4	74%	65–70	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood	+8.8	141.2	82%	68–89	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana	+0.0	130.1	47%	59–51	✗
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+5.6	149.7	77%	69–74	✓
North Dakota State @ Denver	-3.5	153.5	36%	82–77	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara	+6.1	155.1	74%	67–107	✓
UC San Diego @ UC Davis	-1.5	149.0	46%	80–74	✓
Weber State @ Montana	+3.0	150.5	68%	65–81	✓
Idaho State @ Montana State	+5.8	140.8	75%	62–74	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho	+9.7	152.5	84%	76–86	✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington	-3.1	148.6	32%	65–61	✓
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville	-0.5	137.4	48%	66–74	✗
Missouri State @ New Mexico State	+8.1	142.2	80%	84–75	✗
Florida International @ UTEP	-2.0	143.1	42%	77–83	✗
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton	+3.9	155.2	67%	61–71	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside	-5.9	138.2	29%	80–66	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i	+14.9	139.1	89%	71–98	✓
UL Monroe @ App State	+13.3	140.3	88%	43–59	✓
East Carolina @ North Texas	+8.9	133.6	84%	63–59	✗
Mercyhurst @ New Haven	-1.0	123.4	45%	61–57	✓
Stetson @ Austin Peay	+12.0	143.5	87%	65–73	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb	+6.2	152.7	78%	71–86	✓
Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech	-2.2	137.7	40%	76–82	✗
Furman @ UNC Greensboro	-4.1	144.0	32%	89–66	✓
Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure	-10.9	153.1	16%	97–62	✓
Indiana @ Rutgers	-7.6	143.5	24%	82–59	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.