Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -258 FGCU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +15 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -6.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -6.6 (+8.4) | 156.2 (+0.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -7.4 (+7.6) | 155.7 (+1.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -6.2 (+8.8) | 152.7 (+4.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -6.1 (+8.9) | 154.2 (+2.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FGCU 77 – 53 LIP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIP 84 – 77 FGCU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | LIP 82 – 68 FGCU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | LIP 98 – 72 FGCU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | LIP 73 – 64 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#172) | -3.8 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#137) | -1.21 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#140) | -1.21 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#107) | 0.448 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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