Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | APP -2400 ULM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +16 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | APP -17.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-47.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -14.0 (+2.0) | 139.5 (-37.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -13.5 (+2.5) | 144.1 (-42.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -13.3 (+2.7) | 140.3 (-38.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -14.3 (+1.7) | 140.2 (-38.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | APP 66 – 58 ULM |
| Dec 30, 2023 | APP 67 – 55 ULM |
| Feb 10, 2023 | APP 52 – 45 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2022 | APP 77 – 69 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 85.4 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#219) | -17.6 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#220) | -4.20 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#227) | -5.55 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#220) | 0.346 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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