Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | APP -1200 ULM +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | APP -19.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -13.5 (-1.5) | 139.9 (-17.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -15.5 (-3.5) | 141.0 (-19.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -16.5 (-4.5) | 140.8 (-18.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -16.5 (-4.5) | 139.8 (-17.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | APP 59 – 43 ULM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | APP 66 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 10, 2023 | APP 52 – 45 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2022 | APP 77 – 69 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#89) | -9.1 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#81) | -1.14 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#99) | -1.14 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#81) | 0.434 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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