Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | APP -6.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.1 (+2.9) | 139.6 (+6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -3.3 (+4.7) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.8 (+5.2) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -3.6 (+4.4) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | APP 59 – 43 ULM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | APP 66 – 58 ULM |
| Dec 30, 2023 | APP 67 – 55 ULM |
| Feb 10, 2023 | APP 52 – 45 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#219) | -4.6 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#242) | 0.50 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#231) | 0.45 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#209) | 0.550 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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