Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | NHVN +102 MERC -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NHVN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | MERC -0.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NHVN -0.6 (-4.6) | 126.7 (-8.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -1.0 (-3.0) | 123.4 (-5.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -0.2 (-3.8) | 124.3 (-6.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -1.3 (-2.7) | 126.1 (-8.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MERC 70 – 51 NHVN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NHVN | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#323) | -7.2 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#309) | -1.90 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#313) | -2.41 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#278) | 0.418 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NHVN | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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