Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -600 ECU +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +4 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -12.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -11.7 (-15.7) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -8.9 (-12.9) | 133.6 (-11.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -10.1 (-14.1) | 131.7 (-9.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -10.0 (-14.0) | 135.3 (-13.3) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNT 69 – 60 ECU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNT 84 – 69 ECU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNT 60 – 59 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#152) | -8.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#125) | -1.72 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | -2.22 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#147) | 0.446 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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