Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +140 UNT -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -6.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -6.5 (+5.5) | 127.2 (-8.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -6.0 (+5.0) | 130.1 (-11.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -6.1 (+5.1) | 131.5 (-12.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -6.0 (+5.0) | 127.3 (-8.3) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | ECU 63 – 59 UNT |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNT 69 – 60 ECU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNT 84 – 69 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 64.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#199) | 8.4 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#215) | 0.75 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#216) | 1.62 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#242) | 0.532 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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