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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.1 | 142.7 | 69% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 134.2 | 65% | 54–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 146.1 | 42% | 74–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 135.1 | 84% | 55–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 151.2 | 87% | 57–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 163.3 | 47% | 93–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 133.6 | 44% | 68–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.5 | 147.8 | 91% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 150.8 | 26% | 86–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 140.7 | 69% | 85–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.0 | 144.2 | 76% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.4 | 141.2 | 15% | 75–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 141.7 | 66% | 78–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.7 | 142.6 | 31% | 77–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 144.9 | 25% | 77–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 144.6 | 76% | 88–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 140.2 | 60% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 161.7 | 75% | 79–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 144.8 | 80% | 91–102 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.2 | 152.5 | 16% | 85–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 141.0 | 57% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 140.2 | 70% | 61–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.0 | 148.9 | 86% | 68–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 156.6 | 70% | 75–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 142.0 | 78% | 57–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 128.8 | 79% | 59–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 155.1 | 76% | 73–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.