Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +170 GCU -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +11 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -2.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -3.0 (-8.0) | 136.8 (-11.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -1.7 (-9.3) | 133.6 (-8.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -1.9 (-9.1) | 134.6 (-9.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -1.6 (-9.4) | 137.0 (-12.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GCU 85 – 60 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#135) | 7.5 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#165) | 1.48 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#142) | 1.79 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#168) | 0.553 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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