Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -950 FRES +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +25 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -9.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.2 (+13.8) | 139.2 (+5.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -9.3 (+15.7) | 136.4 (+8.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -10.1 (+14.9) | 137.8 (+7.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -10.5 (+14.5) | 139.5 (+5.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | GCU 68 – 57 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#66) | 2.4 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#75) | -0.03 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#74) | 0.18 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#108) | 0.485 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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